Three years ago, when ESPN examined why all 30 NBA teams were all-in for the 2022-23 season, it took a while to reach the first mention of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

At the time, OKC had one cornerstone player — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had yet to make his first All-Star Game — and had just drafted Chet Holmgren (No. 2) and Jalen Williams (No. 12) in the 2022 draft. Even though Oklahoma City’s young talent and draft capital showed promise then, it would’ve been difficult to forecast the franchise ascending to the level it reached this past season — 68 regular-season wins before rolling through the playoffs and becoming the second-youngest championship team in NBA history.

And, yet, it’s a clear reminder that every team can’t always be chasing a title.

Even in an era defined by parity — a different champion has been crowned in a league-record seven consecutive seasons — only a handful of teams are truly championship-quality every year. As a result, teams might be all-in on developing a young core like the Thunder was three seasons ago, or all-in on navigating two timelines like the Golden State Warriors or Dallas Mavericks.

Here’s our take on what all-in looks like for all 30 teams, after combing through each team’s roster, salary cap projections and draft pick obligations. That led us to eight tiers as the 2025-26 season approaches, which will define each team’s relative success or failure.

All-in on … winning a championship before the window closes

Denver Nuggets
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves

When you have the best player on the planet, your team is all-in on winning right now. In the case of the Nuggets, that’s true for reasons beyond simply employing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. First, the superstar center can be a free agent in two years. That undoubtedly creates a sense of urgency, even though Jokic could easily be expected to extend his deal next summer. Beyond that, Denver has traded virtually all of its future draft capital to put its current roster together, including sending its 2032 first-rounder to swap Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson.

Arguably no team in the league is living more in the present than the Bucks, who under general manager Jon Horst have repeatedly swung for the fences to keep superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo happy. Five years ago, the move was to acquire Jrue Holiday. Two years ago, it was to use Holiday as part of the package to acquire Damian Lillard. And, this summer, it was waiving-and-stretching the two years and over $110 million remaining on Lillard’s contract to allow Milwaukee to sign center Myles Turner in the team’s latest attempt to both keep up with the rest of the East contenders and to keep Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee moving forward.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is one of the trickier teams to classify. Franchise player Anthony Edwards will spend another season on our top 25 players under 25 list, which doesn’t exactly scream “win now.” But the Wolves have traded most of their draft capital to keep this team together, are butting up against the salary cap’s second apron and must figure out eventual replacements for both Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, whose arrivals have helped lift Minnesota to back-to-back appearances in the Western Conference finals.

All-in on … an extended championship window

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Cleveland Cavaliers
Houston Rockets
New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic

With no starters in their 30s, the Cavaliers should have staying power as contenders — if they can manage an expensive roster. Extensions for All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley that kick in this coming season will push Cleveland into the second apron, meaning a two-year window before more difficult decisions that might cost the Cavaliers some of their core players.

After dealing for Kevin Durant, the Rockets are hoping to follow in Oklahoma City’s footsteps. Adding Durant opens Houston’s championship window after a first-round loss, and although the 38-year-old future Hall of Famer doesn’t scream “extended window,” the Rockets can pivot around younger stars Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson using a high-upside cache of future picks. The Knicks locked in Mikal Bridges on a four-year, $150 million extension last month after getting Jalen Brunson inked to his own long-term deal last season. New York now has five players — Bridges, Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart — under contract through at least 2028. That’s the vision the franchise had for this group over the past 18 months to, in theory, give the team a long runway.

There’s no precedent for winning a championship and having up to six extra first-round picks coming, not to mention swaps that could dramatically improve Thunder picks likely to fall late in the round. Now that Oklahoma City has extended MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, plus All-Star Jalen Williams and cornerstone Chet Holmgren, the luxury tax will be a challenge. But the Thunder might be less all-in than any reigning champion in modern NBA history.

The question with Orlando is whether adding Desmond Bane vaults the Magic into the contender ranks. In part due to injuries to starters Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, the Magic went 41-41 last season. And they’re payroll is getting expensive quickly, with all four players set to make at least $32.4 million in 2026-27 when Banchero’s extension kicks in. But Bane (27) is Orlando’s only core player over 24.

All-in on … building around young cores

All of these teams have both current talent along with players they hope will grow into significant contributors down the line and/or high-value draft picks that they’ll hope will only enhance their respective cores moving forward.

Atlanta Hawks
Detroit Pistons
Memphis Grizzlies
Portland Trail Blazers
San Antonio Spurs

The Hawks got a huge boost to their future this summer when their draft night trade with the New Orleans Pelicans landed them a pick projected to land inside the top 10 in next year’s draft, only adding to a core that includes last year’s No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels, last season’s most improved player.

Detroit saw Cade Cunningham, the 2021 No. 1 pick, take a massive step forward last season as the franchise won a playoff game for the first time since 2008. Now, the goal is to build on that success for Cunningham and a young core around him featuring Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren.

The Grizzlies, on the other hand, suffered a short-term setback by unloading Bane to Orlando for a collection of picks — but one of them, probably Phoenix’s 2026 first-rounder, has a lot of upside. The hope is that pick, plus this year’s lottery selection, Cedric Coward, and franchise cornerstones Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., can allow this team to have a long runway.

The Trail Blazers now have a large collection of young talent — Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan and Yang Hansen are all under 25 — that they’re hoping to grow with after acquiring veterans Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard this summer. It does remain unclear what shape the roster will take as that talent sorts itself out.

The Spurs, of course, have been at the heart of this category since the 2023 draft lottery when they won the right to select Victor Wembanyama. Since then, the Spurs have leaned on the big man to usher in a new era of excellence in San Antonio. The franchise has added to that group by drafting Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and landing De’Aaron Fox via trade in the two-plus years since drafting Wembanyama.

All-in on … two timelines

Golden State Warriors
LA Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Miami Heat
Dallas Mavericks
Philadelphia 76ers

There are multiple different approaches within this group. The Warriors are closest to all-in on a championship this season after adding Jimmy Butler III (36 in September) to a roster with Stephen Curry (37) and Draymond Green (35). But Golden State has been judicious with future draft picks and has only one player (Moses Moody) with guaranteed money for 2027-28, giving the team the opportunity to pivot.

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Cap flexibility is clearly the plan for the two L.A. teams plus Miami, all of which have been careful in handing out long-term contracts. All three have realistic paths to max-level cap space next summer but are more likely to clear the books in 2027, when multiyear MVPs Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic could potentially become unrestricted free agents barring extensions.

But there’s a difference in how each L.A. team is building its 2026-27 roster. The Clippers are all-in on veterans, having added 38-year-old Brook Lopez and 40-year-old Chris Paul to a deep bench. The Lakers, by contrast, are hoping to find long-term contributors by signing younger players in Deandre Ayton (27) and Jake LaRavia (23).

The 76ers and Mavericks have clearer timelines within their rosters. For Philadelphia, the question is whether Joel Embiid and Paul George can stay healthy long enough to be supported by younger guards Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and No. 3 pick VJ Edgecombe. In Dallas, a No. 1 pick (Cooper Flagg) who would ordinarily be surrounded by young teammates instead joined a roster aiming to win a championship on the timeline of Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving.

All-in on … a gap year

Boston Celtics
Indiana Pacers

If not for Achilles tears for Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, these two teams easily would’ve been in the first two groups on this list. Instead, those injuries to their All-NBA stars — both of whom are all but certain to watch the entire 2025-26 seasons from the sideline as a result — have both teams focused on the future. The departure of Turner from Indiana and Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis from Boston has left both teams more likely to land in the play-in than to make a push for top-four seeding, even in the weaker Eastern Conference.

All-in on … ‘draft positioning’

Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards

These were four of the NBA’s bottom six teams in the standings last season, and they have the four lowest over/under totals for the 2025-26 season at ESPN BET.

Of this group, the Hornets seem most likely to be competitive this season after adding more playmaking depth behind starting point guard LaMelo Ball with newcomers Spencer Dinwiddie and Collin Sexton. As the only top-four pick from this group, Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel also appears most ready to help as a rookie of these lottery picks after being named MVP of the Hornets’ NBA summer league championship game victory.

Still, all of these teams are probably at least a season away from competing for a playoff spot, and they’d love to add another top pick first.

All-in on … nothing?

Chicago Bulls
New Orleans Pelicans
Sacramento Kings
Toronto Raptors

It’s difficult to see what direction these four franchises are headed.

In Chicago, the offseason saw the Bulls extend lead front office executives Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley as well as coach Billy Donovan. But they’ve made the playoffs once and have won a single playoff game over the past eight seasons, and have repeatedly failed to extract draft pick value out of trades for veterans (Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine) in the past year. One light at the end of the tunnel in Chicago: plenty of cap space next summer.

Since last summer, the Pelicans have:

• traded for Dejounte Murray, who subsequently tore his Achilles

• moved on from Brandon Ingram for future draft capital

• traded the No. 23 pick in this year’s draft, plus an unprotected pick next year, to move up to No. 13 to draft Derik Queen in June

The end result is a team that could be in the play-in tournament if everything breaks right. And, if it doesn’t, the Hawks could easily be in line for a top-five pick in what’s expected to be a loaded 2026 draft.

Sacramento, meanwhile, has cobbled together a roster featuring some solid veterans — DeRozan, LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk and Dennis Schroder — but none offer long-term upside or a path to playoff contention in the brutal West.

Toronto is the Eastern Conference version of Sacramento, having moved on from the final players of the Raptors’ 2019 title-winning team — Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam — and essentially turning them into Ingram, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, giving the Raptors a roster that is currently in the luxury tax and might not be better than a play-in team in the East.

All-in on … 2024

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are the cautionary tale of what happens when going all-in goes wrong. If these tiers were from the start of the 2023-24 season, the Suns would have clearly been all-in on a title after adding Bradley Beal to a core of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Phoenix boasted one of the league’s most expensive rosters and controlled none of its first-round picks, having re-swapped several with an eye toward deadline upgrades.

Not only did the Beal-Durant era yield no championship, the Suns didn’t win a playoff game and then agreed to a buyout with Beal last month. Phoenix is now out of the second apron, but a guard-heavy roster in the wake of the Durant trade has no clear timeline. The Suns haven’t traded their 2032 first-round pick, but only because they can’t — it was frozen due to apron restrictions. And Phoenix has no path to significant cap space with Booker and Beal’s salary both on the books through 2030.